The Mexican Peso is weakening in its main pairs amid signs the Mexican economy is slowing down. Disappointing retail sales figures have contributed to a bleak outlook for Mexico's economic activity. This, combined with expectations of a 0.25% interest rate cut by Banxico in August, has led to a downward revision for the Peso’s year-end forecasts. The USD/MXN, which gives the number of Pesos a single US Dollar can purchase, is now forecast to rise from 18.70 to 18.80, according to the Citi Research Expectations survey.

The latest Economic Activity Indicator from the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica, Geografia e Informatica (INEGI) underscores ongoing economic challenges. According to INEGI, Mexico’s economy expanded by 1.6% year-over-year (YoY) in May, a notable deceleration from the near-two-year-high increase of 5.4% recorded in the previous month. Despite this slowdown, the growth exceeded market expectations of a 1.4% increase, buoyed by robust performance in services. 

Retail sales for May grew by 0.3% from the same period in the previous year, significantly easing from a 3.2% increase in April. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, retail sales inched up by 0.1% following a 0.5% increase in April.