EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is showing slight growth, trying to recover from a fairly active decline the day before, as a result of which local lows from July 5 were updated. Quotes are testing 1.0825 for a breakout, and traders are expecting new drivers to emerge. Today, the focus of European investors is on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) statistics of Germany and the eurozone: the German economy slowed down from 0.2% to –0.1% quarter-on-quarter and went up from –0.2% to –0.1% year-on-year, while the eurozone as a whole is likely to adjust from 0.3% to 0.2% and from 0.4% to 0.6%, respectively. If the actual dynamics turn out to be worse than expected, the pressure on the euro will increase significantly, since this will mean increased risks of a possible reduction in borrowing costs by the European Central Bank (ECB). In June, the regulator already eased monetary policy in response to weakening inflationary pressures and the growing threat of recession. The interest rate may be adjusted twice more before the end of the year. Also today at 11:00 (GMT 2), the eurozone business sentiment statistics for July will be presented: according to preliminary estimates, the Economic Sentiment Indicator will fall from 95.9 points to 95.4 points, and the Services Sentiment will fall from 6.5 points to 6.4 points. Tomorrow at 20:00 (GMT 2), the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced: now the markets are almost certain that the rate will remain at 5.50%, but are extremely interested in the prospects of a possible easing of monetary parameters before the end of the year.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading in different directions, holding close to 1.2855. The day before, the pound demonstrated a fairly active decline, and the instrument updated the local lows of July 10, but by the end of the trading session, the "bulls" managed to restore almost all its positions. At the same time, macroeconomic publications from the UK were mixed: Mortgage Approvals in June fell from 60.134 thousand to 59.976 thousand with a forecast of 60.000 thousand, and Consumer Credit fell from 1.494 billion pounds to 1.162 billion pounds. On Thursday, August 1, investors will turn their attention to the outcome of the Bank of England meeting: some analysts expect the regulator to announce the first interest rate cut of the year by 25 basis points to 5.00%, and also hope that officials will comment on the further prospects for monetary policy, which will allow these plans to be correlated with the expected twofold reduction in the cost of borrowing from the US Federal Reserve, whose meeting is scheduled for tomorrow. Experts are confident that the cost of borrowing in the US will remain at 5.50%, while traders expect to hear several more confirmations of the upcoming easing of monetary policy during the September meeting of the American regulator. The US Labor Department's July report is due out on Friday, which could also impact the Fed's future decisions.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair is showing moderate growth, developing an uncertain upward trend in the ultra-short term and retreating from the local lows of early May. The instrument is testing 0.6555 for a breakout, while confident positive dynamics are hampered by macroeconomic statistics from Australia. The Building Permits in June fell by 6.5% after increasing by 5.7% in the previous month, while analysts expected –3.0%, and the annual figure rose from –8.5% to –3.7%. Australia releases inflation data tomorrow, with the CPI forecast to improve to 3.8% year-on-year in the second quarter from 3.6% and to settle at 1.0% quarter-on-quarter, while the annual rate in June could slow down to 3.8% from 4.0%. In addition, tomorrow investors will pay attention to the June statistics on retail sales dynamics: experts expect the indicator to decrease from 0.6% to 0.1%. In turn, a report from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on the level of employment in the private sector will be presented in the US on Wednesday, and the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting on interest rates will also be made public. Most experts are confident that officials will leave the interest rate at 5.50%, but will hint at a shift to "dovish" rhetoric in September.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair shows a slight increase, testing the level of 154.50 for a breakout. The activity of the US dollar "bulls" remains moderate as they are in no hurry to open new positions ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for Wednesday, July 31. Analysts predict that the interest rate will remain at the previous level of 5.50%, but investors are counting on receiving additional confirmation of the regulator’s readiness to ease monetary policy in September. Also in the spotlight this week will be Automatic Data Processing (ADP) data on private sector employment and a report from the US Department of Labor. According to preliminary estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls is expected to decline further in July from 206.0 thousand to 175.0 thousand, Average Hourly Earnings are expected to slow down from 3.9% to 3.7% year-on-year and increase by 0.3% month-on-month, and the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at the previous level of 4.1%. The results of the Bank of Japan meeting will be published tomorrow at 05:00 (GMT 2): the regulator will almost certainly keep the interest rate at zero. At the same time, officials may again express concerns about a sharp weakening of the national currency, which was trading near record lows at 162.00 in early July. Japan releases June Industrial Production and Retail Sales data tomorrow, with forecasts calling for a sharp 4.8% slowdown in Industrial Production after a 3.6% rise in the previous month, while Retail Sales could rise to 3.3% from 3.0%.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair is consolidating near 2390.00, waiting for new drivers to emerge. Among other things, investors will focus on the results of the meetings of the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan this week. The US and Japanese regulators are not expected to make any changes to their monetary policy vector, while the British one may cut the interest rate by 25 basis points in response to a sharp slowdown in inflation in the country and growing risks of recession. The European Central Bank (ECB) will meet next in September, but tomorrow the EU will publish inflation data that could change analysts' estimates: forecasts suggest a slowdown in the Core Consumer Price Index in annual terms from 2.9% to 2.8%, and in the CPI — from 2.5% to 2.4%. At the end of the week, investors will turn their attention to the July labor market report: forecasts suggest a decline in Nonfarm Payrolls from 206.0 thousand to 175.0 thousand and Average Hourly Earnings from 3.9% to 3.7% in annual terms, but the monthly figure may remain at 0.3%.