Current trend

Amid stable dynamics of the American dollar, the AUD/USD pair is correcting down, trading at 0.6487.

Macroeconomic statistics are putting pressure on the Australian currency. The Q2 CPI remained at 1.0% QoQ, so it accelerated from 3.6% to 3.8% YoY. It may prevent the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) officials from cutting interest rates soon, which will negatively affect the economy and household income. The June retail sales amounted to 0.5% MoM and –0.3% YoY.

The American dollar is trading at 104.00 in USDX. The July JOLTS open vacancies decreased from 8.230M to 8.184M, better than the forecast of 8.020M. Investors prefer not to open new positions. Firstly, the third quarter is traditionally the least volatile due to the holiday season, and secondly, today at 20:00 (GMT 2), the results of the US Fed meeting are due. The regulator’s officials will keep the interest rate at the current level with a probability close to 100.0%.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the trading instrument is correcting, approaching the support line of the Expanding formation pattern with dynamic boundaries of 0.6820–0.6250.

Technical indicators are holding the sell signal: the fast EMA on the Alligator indicator is moving away from the signal line, expanding the range of fluctuations, and the AO histogram is decreasing in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 0.6510, 0.6580.

Support levels: 0.6470, 0.6400.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after the price declines and consolidates below 0.6470, with the target at 0.6400. Stop loss — 0.6520. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Long positions may be opened after the price grows and consolidates above 0.6510, with the target at 0.6580. Stop loss — 0.6480.