Daily Digest Market Movers: Umuusad ang Australian Dollar dahil sa isang hawkish na mood sa paligid ng RBA

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  • Noong Lunes, iniugnay ng Deputy Governor ng Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) na si Andrew Hauser ang patuloy na inflation sa mahinang supply at mahigpit na labor market. Nabanggit din ni Hauser na ang mga pagtataya sa ekonomiya ay napapalibutan ng makabuluhang kawalan ng katiyakan.
  • Maaaring pigilan ang pagtaas ng risk-sensitive na AUD dahil sa mga safe-haven na daloy sa gitna ng tumaas na geopolitical tensions sa Middle East. Noong Linggo, ipinaalam ni Defense Minister Yoav Gallant kay US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin na ang mga aktibidad ng militar ng Iran ay nagpapahiwatig ng paghahanda para sa isang makabuluhang welga sa Israel, tulad ng iniulat ng manunulat ng Axios na si Barak Ravid.
  • Noong Linggo, sinabi ng Gobernador ng Federal Reserve na si Michelle Bowman na patuloy siyang nakakakita ng mga upside risk para sa inflation at patuloy na lakas sa labor market. Ito ay nagpapahiwatig na ang Fed ay maaaring hindi handa na bawasan ang mga rate sa kanilang susunod na pagpupulong sa Setyembre, ayon sa Bloomberg.
  • Ang Consumer Price Index (CPI) ng China ay tumaas ng 0.5% year-on-year noong Hulyo, na lumampas sa inaasahang 0.3% at nakaraang 0.2% na pagbabasa. Samantala, tumaas din ang buwanang index ng 0.5%, na umuugoy mula sa dating pagbaba ng 0.2%.
  • In-update ng Westpac ang RBA forecast nito, na ngayon ay hinuhulaan na ang unang pagbabawas ng rate ay magaganap sa Pebrero 2025, isang pagbabago mula sa naunang inaasahang Nobyembre 2024. Binago din nila ang kanilang pagtataya sa terminal rate sa 3.35%, mula sa dating 3.10%. Ang RBA ay tinitingnan na ngayon bilang mas maingat, na nangangailangan ng mas malakas na ebidensya bago isaalang-alang ang mga pagbawas sa rate.

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