EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is showing slight growth, recovering from a moderate decline the day before, which did not allow the instrument to consolidate at new local highs. The reason for the downward trend was macroeconomic data, which weakened the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve cutting the interest rate by 50 basis points in September. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended August 9 fell from 234.0 thousand to 227.0 thousand, while analysts expected 235.0 thousand, and Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ended August 2 fell from 1.871 million to 1.864 million, while analysts expected 1.880 million. At the same time, Retail Sales volumes in July increased by 1.0% after –0.2% the month before, while analysts expected 0.3%. European markets were closed on Thursday, so the reaction of investors to the US data was even more pronounced. Today at 11:00 (GMT 2), investors will pay attention to statistics on the eurozone Trade Balance, while in the US at 14:30 (GMT 2), statistics on the housing market will be presented and at 16:00 (GMT 2), the Consumer Sentiment index from the University of Michigan will be released, which could increase from 66.4 points to 66.9 points in August.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading with upward dynamics, testing the level of 1.2875 for a breakout and updating local highs from July 29. Investors are focusing on the morning statistics from the UK: Retail Sales in July grew by 0.5% month-on-month and 1.4% year-on-year, which fully matched analysts’ forecasts. In the previous month, sales showed negative dynamics at the level of –0.9% and –0.3%, respectively. In addition, markets are assessing the statistics on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) released yesterday: as expected, the economy accelerated in the second quarter from 0.3% to 0.9% year-on-year, while in quarterly terms it slowed down slightly from 0.7% to 0.6%, and in monthly terms — from 0.4% to 0.0%. Investors also took note of the 0.8% increase in Industrial Production after a 0.3% increase in June, compared to a forecast of 0.1%. Meanwhile, the US dollar received support on Thursday, responding to Retail Sales data that rose 1.0% in July after falling 0.2% the previous month, while analysts had expected a 0.3% gain.

NZD/USD

The NZD/USD pair is recovering losses after two sessions that brought the instrument to local lows from August 7. Quotes are testing 0.6015 for a breakout. The New Zealand currency is supported by statements from the Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Adrian Orr, who noted that current economic conditions in the country and abroad remain uncertain, as inflation is still stable despite the targeted move to the range of 1.0-3.0%. According to him, the measures taken by officials are sufficient to control the dynamics of consumer prices. Markets took the official's rhetoric as a signal that monetary policy will remain neutral in the near future. New Zealand released business activity data today, with the Manufacturing PMI accelerating to 44.0 points in July from 41.1 points. In addition, the Producer Price Input Index accelerated in the second quarter from 0.7% to 1.4%, while analysts expected a slowdown to 0.5%, and the Producer Price Output Index accelerated from 0.9% to 1.1%, contrary to forecasts of a slowdown to 0.6%. New Zealand's producer inflation data also helped dampen expectations of monetary easing from the RBNZ. Meanwhile, the US currency was supported by data on US Retail Sales, which were published the day before: the July figure added 1.0% after –0.2% in the previous month, while experts expected 0.3%.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is showing a corrective decline, retreating from the local highs of the beginning of the month, located just above 149.00. Technical factors are helping to develop the downward trend, while the US currency continues to receive moderate support following the publication of Retail Sales data the day before. The July figure added 1.0% after falling 0.2% in the previous month, while analysts had expected 0.3%. At the same time, Retail Sales excluding Autos adjusted from 0.5% to 0.4%, with expectations of 0.1%. Meanwhile, the Japanese currency was pressured by Industrial Production statistics: in June, its volumes fell by 4.2% after –3.6% the previous month, and in annual terms the rate of decline accelerated from –7.3% to –7.9%. Japanese investors are assessing Tertiary Industry Index statistics today, with the June index down 1.3% after rising 0.6% against preliminary estimates of 0.3%.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, consolidating near the level of 2455.00. The instrument is set to close the weekly session with a slight increase, while traders are waiting for the drivers of the movement to emerge. In particular, today at 16:00 (GMT 2), the data on the Consumer Sentiment index from the University of Michigan will be presented: according to forecasts, in August the indicator will increase from 66.4 points to 66.9 points, which will provide moderate support to the American currency. The dollar's position strengthened the day before against the backdrop of the publication of macroeconomic statistics on Retail Sales: the July figure added 1.0% after –0.2% in the previous month, while experts expected 0.3%. It is worth noting that Industrial Production in the US fell by 0.6% in July after growing by 0.3% in June, with expectations of –0.3%. Following the release of consumer and producer inflation data this week, investors have slightly revised their forecasts for the expected easing of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve during its September meeting: now most analysts expect the interest rate to be cut by only 25 basis points, although at the beginning of the week the probability of a –50-basis-point adjustment was estimated at more than 50.0%.