Daily digest market movers: Bahagyang tumaas ang US Dollar, inaasahan pa rin ng mga investor ang agresibong Fed easing

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  • Ang mga inaasahan sa merkado para sa agresibong Fed easing ay tumaas bago ang desisyon ng FOMC noong Miyerkules.
  • Inaasahan ng karamihan sa mga analyst ang isang 25-basis-point cut, ngunit ang isang dakot ay hinuhulaan ang isang mas malaking 50-basis-point cut.
  • Ang merkado ay nagpepresyo sa 65% na pagkakataon ng 50 bps cut at 250 bps ng easing sa susunod na 12 buwan.
  • Ang mga inaasahan ng agresibong rate ng market sa path ay malamang na hindi mapatunayan ng na-update na Dot Plot.
  • Ang mga panganib ng isang dovish sorpresa mula sa Fed ay nananatili, ngunit hindi lahat ng mga miyembro ay inaasahang susuportahan ang naturang hakbang.
  • Sa harap ng data, ayon sa ulat ng US Census Bureau noong Martes, ang Retail Sales sa US ay lumago ng 0.1% noong Agosto, umabot sa $710.8 bilyon.
  • Kasunod ito ng 1.1% na pagtaas noong Hulyo at nalampasan ang mga hula sa merkado, na inaasahan ang isang 0.2% na pagbaba. Gayunpaman, hindi kasama ang mga benta ng sasakyan, ang Retail Sales ay tumaas ng 0.1%, mas mababa sa inaasahang 0.2% na paglago.


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