USD/CHF: SNB ANG NAKATUTOK BUKAS – OCBC

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Bumagsak ang USD/CHF sa gitna ng malawak na lambot ng USD. Huli ang pares sa 0.8479 na antas, ang tala ng FX strategists ng OCBC na sina Frances Cheung at Christopher Wong.

Ang mga panganib ay nakahilig sa downside

"Buo ang Bullish na momentum sa pang-araw-araw na chart ngunit nagpapakita ng mga palatandaan ng paghina habang bumaba ang RSI. Ang mga panganib ay medyo nakahilig sa downside. Suporta sa 0.8375 (2024 mababa). Paglaban sa 0.8520 na antas. Nakatuon bukas ang desisyon ng patakaran ng SNB . Malamang na ibababa ng mga gumagawa ng patakaran ang rate ng patakaran (sa pamamagitan ng 25bp) sa 1%, sa ikatlong magkakasunod na pagkakataon sa taong ito."

"May ilang mga chatters kung maaaring sundin ng SNB ang Fed sa paghahatid ng 50bp cut ngayong Huwebes, ngunit duda kami na kailangan ng SNB. Ang Swiss inflation ay nasa ilalim ng kontrol sa 1.1%, alinsunod sa mga inaasahan ng SNB at isang benign inflation profile na nagpapahintulot sa SNB na mapagaan ang patakaran. Bilang karagdagan, ang mga grupo ng lobby sa industriya kabilang ang mga gumagawa ng relo, asosasyon ng mga tagagawa ng teknolohiya ay hinimok ang SNB at ang gobyerno na suportahan ang mga exporter sa pamamagitan ng pagpigil sa lakas ng CHF.

"Naniniwala pa rin kami na ang kamakailang lakas ng CHF ay dapat na mabagal ngunit kung ang malawak na bearish na trend ng USD ay mananatiling nangingibabaw, kung gayon ang USD/CHF ay maaari pa ring lumihis sa downside. Mula sa pananaw ng TWI, dapat nating asahan na bumagal ang lakas ng CHF."



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