The two most important consumer countries of Gold have recently been sending out very different signals. While India reported a significant increase in Gold imports in August, China's Gold imports plummeted, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

India’s Gold demand is likely to fade

“According to the World Gold Council, India imported 140 tons of Gold, which was three times as much as in the previous month and, based on the data of the central bank, the largest amount in 3½ years. The import surge was triggered by the steep reduction of the import tax from 15 percent to 6 percent, which apparently more than compensated for the price increase.”

“Furthermore, purchases may have been brought forward in anticipation of the festival and wedding season. In China, the significant increase in prices visibly dampened demand. According to data from the Hong Kong statistics department, China's net Gold imports from Hong Kong fell by 76% to just over 6 tons in August. They were last lower in April 2022, when the coronavirus lockdowns hit Gold demand and imports in China.”

“Switzerland did not export any Gold to China at all in August, as reported by the Swiss Federal Customs Administration last week. By contrast, Swiss Gold exports to India rose sharply. However, given the record high local prices, Gold demand there is also likely to fade as soon as the effect of the tax cut subsides.”