DXY: MAIKLING SQUEEZE – OCBC

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Ang US Dollar (USD) ay tumataas habang ang market ay kumuha ng mga pahiwatig mula sa NABE speech mula kay Fed Chair Powell upang kumita ng mga USD shorts. Nanguna ang MYR at THB sa pagbaba ngayon. Ang DXY ay huling sa 101.00, ang tala ng mga strategist ng OCBC FX na sina Frances Cheung at Christopher Wong.

Ang pang-araw-araw na momentum ay nagiging mahinang bullish

"Ang pangunahing mensahe ay hindi nagpapakita ng pakiramdam ng gulat tungkol sa ekonomiya ng US at nagbibigay ng pakiramdam ng walang pagmamadali upang mabilis na paluwagin ang patakaran sa pananalapi. Tinukoy din niya ang dot plot upang ipahiwatig ang 2 higit pang 25bp cut kung 'economy is as expected'."

"Ito ay medyo nagpapahina sa sigasig ng mga merkado sa pagpepresyo ng higit sa 75bp na pagbawas para sa natitirang taon. Magiging interesado ang JOLTS job openings (Martes), ADP employment (Wed), initial jobless claims (Huwe) at payrolls report (Fri). Ang mga dovish na taya ay higit pang mababawasan kung ang data na nauugnay sa paggawa ay mas mainit, at ito ay maaaring magdagdag sa USD rebound momentum sa malapit na termino.

"Ang pang-araw-araw na momentum ay naging mahinang bullish habang ang RSI ay tumaas. Ang mga panganib ay medyo nakabaluktot. Paglaban sa 101.10 (21 DMA), 101.90 na antas. Near term support sa 100.20 (kamakailang mababa). Ang break-out ay naglalagay ng susunod na suporta sa 99.60, 99.20 na antas. Pansamantala, ang ilang pagkuha ng tubo sa Asian FX ay malamang na mauna sa mga panganib sa kaganapan ng data."



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