economic resilience ang USD na mas mataas
- Ang ekonomiya ng US ay mahusay na gumaganap. Ang tinatayang paglago ng Q3 GDP na 3.0% SAAR ay tumutugma sa Q2, at ang personal na pagkonsumo sa 3.2% SAAR ay lumampas sa 2.8% ng Q2 ayon sa GDPNow tracker.
- Ang modelo ng GDPNow ng Atlanta Fed ay hinuhulaan ang isang mas mataas na paglago ng Q3 na 3.3% SAAR, na ang huling pag-update ay inaasahan sa Martes at ang forecast ng Q4 ay darating sa Huwebes.
- Tinatantya ng modelong Nowcast ng New York Fed ang paglago ng Q3 sa 2.9% SAAR at Q4 sa 2.5% SAAR, kasama ang forecast nito sa Q4 na ia-update sa Biyernes at Q1 2025 na forecast na darating sa huling bahagi ng Nobyembre.
- Inaasahan ng Consensus ang pagtaas ng ISM Manufacturing PMI sa 47.6 noong Oktubre, na sinusuportahan ng kamakailang pagtaas ng S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI sa dalawang buwang mataas na 47.8.
- Bilang karagdagan, ang data ng labor market ng Biyernes ay mahigpit na babantayan, kabilang ang isang Nonfarm Payroll at Unemployment reading.
- Samantala, ang mga merkado ay patuloy na tumataya sa dalawang pagbawas ng Federal Reserve sa pagtatapos ng 2024.
- Binawasan ng BoC ang mga rate ng interes ng 50 na batayan na puntos sa 3.75% noong nakaraang Miyerkules, mas malaki kaysa sa karaniwang 25 bps.
- Hinuhulaan ng mga ekonomista ang isa pang 50 bps na pagbawas mula sa BoC noong Disyembre dahil sa mga panganib sa downside sa paglago ng ekonomiya ng Canada.
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