Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for July 21 – 25, 2025

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NORDFX Global

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☀️ NordFX Morning Update – October 1, 2026 🌍 Macro & Geopolitics 🔥 US–Iran talks over reopening the Strait of Hormuz keep oil swinging. Brent is down 1.4% to about $96.7, WTI at $88.9. 🛢️ 🏦 Core PCE rose just 0.2% m/m in August (forecast 0.3%), and the annual rate eased to 3.0%. Odds of an October Fed hike are around 38%. ✅ ⚠️ The US 10-year yield is still elevated at 5.28%, close to multi-decade highs. 🌏 Asian Markets 🇯🇵 Nikkei 225: +3.1% to 68,840 on chip and AI stocks. The Tankan large manufacturers index came in at 24 (forecast 25, previous 22) 🚀 🇰🇷 KOSPI: +1.6% to 6,946. South Korea's September exports jumped 83.5% y/y 📈 🇦🇺 ASX 200: –1.8% to 8,635. Australia's manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.6 🔻 🇮🇳 Nifty 50: –0.3% to 22,563 🇨🇳🇭🇰 China and Hong Kong are closed for National Day. Last closes: Hang Seng 24,613 (+0.4%) and Shanghai Composite 3,842 (+0.3%) 🏮 🗽 Wall Street (Wednesday) S&P 500 –0.25% to 7,652 | Dow –0.86% to 50,906 | Nasdaq +0.24% to 26,861 📊 💱 Market Snapshot 💶 EUR/USD: 1.1316 (–0.1%) 💴 USD/JPY: 158.33 (+0.6%) 🥇 Gold: $4,182 (+0.6%) 🥈 Silver: $61.26 (+1.4%) ₿ Bitcoin: $84,253 (+1.0%) Ξ Ethereum: $2,713 (+1.4%) 📅 Today's Calendar (GMT+3) 🇨🇭 09:30 Swiss CPI 🇪🇺 11:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI 🇺🇸 15:30 Jobless Claims 🇺🇸 17:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI 🎤 BoE's Bailey and Fed's Barkin, Collins and Schmid also speak

NORDFX Global

Market Autopsy: The LIBOR Scandal 🔎 How Traders Rigged a $350 Trillion Benchmark For decades, LIBOR quietly priced the world's loans, mortgages, and derivatives - based on nothing but banks' self-reported "estimates." No trades required. Just trust. That trust was gamed. Traders at Barclays, UBS, Deutsche Bank and others fixed the numbers - sometimes for profit, sometimes to hide how shaky their banks really were in 2008. Chat logs later showed rates being swapped for champagne and bonuses. 💸 The price tag: $9B+ in fines, criminal convictions, and the death of LIBOR itself - replaced by transaction-based rates like SOFR and SONIA. 📌 Why it matters now: LIBOR proved that a benchmark run by insiders, with no public audit trail, will eventually be gamed. Crypto and DeFi face the same test today - oracle manipulation, thin-liquidity price feeds, and "governance" votes controlled by a handful of wallets are the modern version of a trader texting a rate request. Same failure mode, new venue. The takeaway hasn't changed: know how a price is actually built before you trust it. 👉 Trade the markets that learned the hard way: https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis... #NordFX #LIBOR #MarketAutopsy #DeFi #ForexHistory #Trading

NORDFX Global

Morning Update – NordFX | September 29, 2026 🌅 🌍 Trump's rejection of Iran's Hormuz proposal keeps oil, yields and inflation fears in focus. Rate-hike bets are weighing on risk assets. 🇺🇸 Wall Street closed lower on Monday: 📉 Dow –0.67% at 51,481.51 📉 S&P 500 –0.77% at 7,683.69 📉 Nasdaq –0.92% at 26,820.38 🏦 The US 10-year yield is about 5.26%, near its highest since 2007. 🌏 Asian markets are lower this morning: 🇯🇵 Nikkei 225 –1.35% at 64,988 🇰🇷 Kospi –1.07% at 6,816 🇭🇰 Hang Seng –0.95% at 24,409 🇨🇳 Shanghai Composite –0.03% at 3,823 🇦🇺 ASX 200 –0.11% at 8,670 🇦🇺 The RBA raised its cash rate by 25 bps to 4.60%, the fourth hike this year and a 15-year high. 💱 Forex: 🇪🇺 EUR/USD 1.1361 (–0.09%) 🇬🇧 GBP/USD 1.3237 (–0.15%) 🇯🇵 USD/JPY 157.51 (+0.08%) 🇦🇺 AUD/USD 0.7020 (+0.03%) 🥇 Gold: $4,126 (+0.28%), recovering slightly after Monday's sharp selloff. 🛢 Oil: Brent $99.87 (+2.09%) and WTI $94.31 (+1.85%). ₿ Bitcoin: $83,249 (–0.06%). 📅 Today (CEST): 🇪🇺 11:00 – Eurozone economic sentiment and consumer confidence 🇺🇸 16:00 – US consumer confidence and JOLTS job openings 🎤 Evening – Fed speakers Barr, Goolsbee, Musalem and Williams ⚠️ Iran headlines and Fed comments can move the dollar, gold and oil quickly. Trade carefully!

NORDFX Global

🪙 NordFX Crypto News of the Week: ETF Volume ≠ ETF Money 📊 Bitcoin ETFs: don't confuse trading with inflows US spot Bitcoin ETFs swung between creations and redemptions: -$148.7M on Sep 30, +$102.7M on Oct 1, +$189.8M on Oct 2, -$89.9M on Oct 5 and +$118.8M on Oct 6. BlackRock's IBIT led the latest session with +$122M. But here's the important part 👇 ETF trading volume is not ETF inflow. Billions of dollars can change hands as investors trade existing ETF shares on exchanges without the fund receiving billions in new money. Net creations/redemptions show whether the ETF structure is actually expanding or contracting through authorised participants. ₿ Bitcoin cools Bitcoin slipped towards $84K-$85K by Oct 7 as a stronger dollar, high Treasury yields and geopolitical risk outweighed the recent improvement in ETF demand. 🏛️ Crypto politics heats up The US CFTC proposed a federal framework for crypto platforms offering leveraged or margined trading after broader legislation stalled. In Europe, ESMA called for stronger powers, including the ability to order crypto firms to freeze assets suspected of links to crime. 🔗 Wall Street moves further on-chain An OKX-ICE joint venture filed with the SEC for a platform aimed at enabling 24/7 trading of tokenised US stocks. 😂 Fun fact of the week A memecoin frenzy on Robinhood Chain briefly generated around $443M in trading, before activity collapsed by roughly 96%. Crypto managed to compress an entire boom-and-bust cycle into weeks. 🎢 🎯 NordFX takeaway: ETF headlines need context. Volume measures how much ETF shares trade. Net creations and redemptions tell us much more about whether fresh capital is actually entering or leaving the funds.

NORDFX Global

NordFX: Stocks Say "Risk On". Credit Says "Not So Fast". 👀 Two markets. Two very different moods. 📈 Equities remain remarkably confident. The S&P 500 closed at 7,801.77 on Wednesday, only 0.22% lower after setting a record the previous day. 💳 Credit is more cautious. US investment-grade corporate spreads have moved wider from recent lows, while lower-quality debt is showing greater sensitivity to tighter financial conditions. And that distinction matters. 👇 🏦 A corporate bond can fall simply because Treasury yields rise. The US 10-year yield is now around 5.30%, after touching 5.364% this week. But a widening credit spread means investors are demanding more compensation specifically for corporate risk. 🌍 The backdrop is hardly quiet: 🔥 Brent is around $102 ⚔️ Middle East and Hormuz risks remain elevated 🏦 Fed minutes point to further tightening this year 💵 The dollar index is near an 18-month high So why are stocks still so resilient? 💡 Equities are focusing on earnings and growth, while credit investors are paying closer attention to refinancing costs, leverage and the consequences of higher-for-longer rates. 💱 For FX traders, the disagreement is important. If equities stay strong while credit spreads widen, the apparent "risk-on" mood may be more fragile than it looks. If stocks eventually join credit in signalling stress, risk-sensitive currencies could come under pressure and defensive dollar demand could strengthen. 📊 Sometimes stocks shout louder. Credit may whisper earlier. 👉 Watch both sides of the risk story with NordFX: https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis... #NordFX #Forex #FX #Trading #CreditSpreads #StockMarket #USD #MarketAnalysis

NORDFX Global