The Forex market on March 31, 2026 remained cautious, with capital still favoring the U.S. dollar while major assets traded within controlled ranges. Investors are closely monitoring upcoming U.S. economic data, which could shape the policy outlook of the Federal Reserve.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hovered around 104.2–104.6, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained near 4.2%–4.3%. The dollar continues to be supported by reduced expectations of near-term rate cuts, as the U.S. economy shows resilience and inflation remains above target. According to Reuters and Bloomberg, global capital continues to flow into USD assets due to their relatively high yield and safe-haven appeal.
EUR & GBP: Range-bound amid weak catalysts
EUR/USD traded around 1.146, while GBP/USD fluctuated near 1.320. Both currencies remained range-bound due to weak economic momentum in Europe and persistent inflation pressures in the UK. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England are facing policy constraints, limiting their ability to diverge significantly from the Fed.
JPY: Continued weakness from rate differentials
USD/JPY remained elevated around 159, reflecting ongoing pressure on the Japanese yen. Although the Bank of Japan has signaled policy adjustments, the pace remains insufficient to close the interest rate gap with the U.S., sustaining carry trade demand.
Gold (XAU/USD) recovered and traded around 4560–4561, with intraday highs near 4561.38, showing a short-term rebound after recent pressure. However, this rebound does not yet signal a full trend reversal. Gold remains vulnerable due to:
- A strong USD
- Elevated Treasury yields
- Ongoing “higher-for-longer” rate expectations
In other words, gold is rebounding tactically, but structurally still under pressure.
Silver: Follows gold’s rebound but lacks strong momentum
Silver (XAG/USD) moved in line with gold, showing a mild recovery. However, upside remains limited as the metal continues to be sensitive to USD strength and yield movements.
Oil: Brent and WTI stable, shaping inflation outlook
Oil prices remained steady, with WTI trading around 102 USD/barrel and Brent crude oil hovering near 109 USD/barrel. The oil market is currently balanced as supply from OPEC+ remains controlled while global demand shows no significant surge. Stable oil prices help ease short-term inflation pressures but remain a key macro driver.
Market Outlook
The market is currently in a low-volatility but high-breakout-risk phase, where short-term rebounds can occur within broader macro pressure. Upcoming U.S. data, especially labor and inflation reports, will be key catalysts for the next directional move.
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