MACRO   ECONOMIC CALENDAR   August 10 – 14, 2026  ·  GMT+8

Weekly Economic Calendar: Week of 10 – 14 August 2026

Followme News Desk  |  August 10, 2026  |  All times GMT+8

This week's economic calendar is heavily focused on the RBA Interest Rate Decision, U.S. Existing Home Sales, German CPI (MoM), U.S. CPI (YoY and MoM), Core CPI (MoM), Crude Oil Inventories, the U.S. 10-Year Note Auction, UK GDP (YoY, MoM and QoQ), U.S. PPI (MoM), Initial Jobless Claims, the 30-Year Bond Auction, and U.S. Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales (MoM). Tuesday opens with the RBA decision and home sales data before Wednesday arrives as the most important session of the week, German CPI, U.S. CPI and Crude Oil Inventories all land on the same day.

Thursday follows with UK GDP, the 10-Year Note Auction, U.S. PPI and Initial Jobless Claims, and Friday closes with the 30-Year Bond Auction and Retail Sales. U.S. CPI is the standout release. With the annual rate forecast dropping from 4.20% to 3.80% and the monthly figure expected to go negative, Wednesday's inflation data will frame how every other release this week gets interpreted and could be the clearest signal the market has seen yet about where the Fed is heading.

Key Events This Week

🕐 All times shown are GMT+8

Macro Analysis

🇦🇺 RBA Interest Rate Decision

The RBA is expected to hold at 4.35%, unchanged from the prior meeting. A hold is fully priced in, so the rate itself won't be the story what matters is whether the statement signals the RBA is getting closer to cutting or remains comfortable sitting at current levels. Any language that hints at easing ahead would weigh on AUD and could set a risk-off tone early in the week before the heavier U.S. data arrives. A more cautious or hawkish-leaning statement, particularly if it flags persistent domestic inflation concerns, would give AUD some support and suggest the RBA isn't in a rush to follow other central banks toward easing.

🇺🇸 U.S. Existing Home Sales

Existing Home Sales for July are forecast at 4.19M, flat with the prior reading no change expected. Housing data that comes in exactly at forecast rarely moves markets, but a surprise in either direction is worth noting. A beat would suggest buyer activity is holding up despite current rate conditions, which is a modest USD-positive. A miss, particularly a meaningful one, would add to the picture of a consumer sector that's starting to feel the weight of higher-for-longer rates, and could weaken USD heading into Wednesday's much more important CPI release.

🇩🇪 German CPI (MoM)

Dynamics German CPI for July is forecast at 0.70%, a sharp reversal from -0.30% prior. Two things happen when monthly German inflation jumps this much, it gives the ECB less room to cut and gives EUR some support heading into Thursday's UK GDP and U.S. PPI session. If the reading confirms the 0.70% forecast or beats it, traders will start pricing in a more cautious ECB stance, which could lift EUR into the weekend. A mistake that brings the number back toward flat or negative would revive ECB easing expectations and weigh on the single currency, particularly if U.S. CPI on the same day also disappoints.

🇺🇸 U.S. CPI and Core CPI

Wednesday is the standout session of the week. CPI (YoY) for July is forecast at 3.80%, easing from 4.20% prior, a meaningful deceleration if confirmed. CPI (MoM) is forecast at -0.10%, down sharply from 0.50% prior, while Core CPI (MoM) is forecast at 0.20%, matching the prior reading. A set of readings that confirms this deceleration story would give the Fed meaningful cover to consider rate cuts sooner than expected, which would weigh on USD fast. The annual rate dropping from 4.20% to 3.80% is a big move. If it lands anywhere close to that, the dollar will feel it. A surprise to the upside, particularly if Core holds firm or accelerates, would preserve the higher-for-longer narrative and push USD higher.

🇺🇸 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories

Crude Oil Inventories are forecast at -1.500M, a much smaller drawdown than the -7.167M seen prior. The prior week's significant drawdown gave oil prices some support, and a continuation even at a more modest level keeps the energy picture broadly constructive. A surprise build, or a drawdown far smaller than forecast, could ease oil-driven inflation concerns at a time when CPI is already showing signs of cooling. In a week where the inflation narrative is the dominant theme, an unexpected oil inventory result could add noise to an already busy Wednesday session.

🇺🇸 U.S. 10-Year Note Auction

The 10-Year Note Auction comes with a previous yield of 4.54%. With CPI landing on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday, the auction landing at 1:00 Thursday morning will be trading in the afterglow of whatever the inflation data showed. Strong demand that clears below 4.54% would signal that bond markets believe the disinflation trend is real and that rate cuts are coming, reinforcing any USD weakness from Wednesday's CPI. A weak auction, particularly one that clears above 4.54% would push yields higher and could complicate the narrative if markets are simultaneously trying to price in Fed easing.

🇬🇧 UK GDP and GBP Growth Sensitivity

Three UK GDP readings land simultaneously on Thursday: GDP (YoY) Q2 is forecast at 1.10%, up from 0.90% prior; GDP (MoM) for June is forecast at 0.00%, recovering from -0.10% prior; and GDP (QoQ) Q2 is forecast at 0.60%, a significant jump from 0.10% prior. If all three confirm the improving trajectory, GBP could get a meaningful lift. The quarterly number moving from 0.10% to 0.60% is the headline if confirmed. It suggests the UK economy found significantly more momentum in Q2 than Q1. A miss on any of the three, particularly the quarterly figure, would undercut that story and put GBP back under pressure.

🇺🇸 U.S. PPI (MoM) and Producer-Level Inflation

PPI for July is forecast at 0.00%, down from 0.60% prior, a sharp easing in producer price growth. Coming the day after CPI, PPI will be read as either confirmation or contradiction of whatever the consumer-level inflation data showed on Wednesday. If both CPI and PPI come in soft, the disinflationary picture looks increasingly complete and USD has less to stand on going into Friday. A firmer-than-expected PPI, even just a modest beat above flat, would introduce some doubt about whether producer costs are actually cooling as fast as the headline implies.

🇺🇸 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims

Claims are forecast at 203K, ticking up from 198K prior. Still a very low reading by historical standards, if confirmed, signals that the labour market remains firm even as other indicators soften. A reading at or below 203K would keep the job story intact and give the Fed more time before it needs to act. A jump meaningfully above consensus, particularly if it follows last week's soft NFP, would raise fresh concerns about whether the labour market is finally starting to crack and would increase pressure on USD heading into Friday's retail data.

🇺🇸 U.S. 30-Year Bond Auction

The 30-Year Bond Auction, with a previous yield of 5.05%, will give markets a read on how comfortable investors are with holding very long-dated U.S. debt. A strong auction with yields clearing below 5.05% would signal that bond buyers see the current rate environment as near its peak and are willing to lock in at current levels, broadly supportive of the rate-cut narrative. A weak auction with elevated yields would suggest the opposite: that markets aren't convinced rates are coming down anytime soon, which could support USD on the long end even if other data is pointing toward easing.

🇺🇸 U.S. Retail Sales, Core Retail Sales and Consumer Demand

Retail Sales for July are forecast at 0.20%, a steep drop from 1.00% prior, while Core Retail Sales are forecast at 0.00%, also sharply below the 1.00% prior reading. Both measures expected to decelerate significantly in the same month are a notable signal about consumer spending momentum. If confirmed, it would suggest that the strong June figures didn't carry through into July and combined with a softer CPI from Wednesday, it would paint a picture of an economy where both growth and inflation are cooling simultaneously. A surprise beat on either measure would reassure USD bulls that the consumer is more resilient than the headline forecast implies.

Speculative Outlook for USD Traders

Wednesday is the week's hinge point. If CPI confirms a genuine deceleration, the annual rate dropping from 4.20% to 3.80%, monthly going negative. The rest of the week's data gets read through a dovish Fed lens regardless of what else comes in. PPI on Thursday, retail sales on Friday, even bond auctions, all of it will be filtered through whatever Wednesday's CPI says about the inflation trajectory. A soft Wednesday opens the door for rate cut pricing to accelerate meaningfully, and USD would spend the rest of the week trying to find a floor.

If CPI surprises the upside and inflation proves stickier than the forecast implies, the Dollar gets a reprieve and Friday's retail data becomes more interesting, a beat there would build a compelling case that the economy is still running warm enough to keep the Fed patient. The RBA on Tuesday and UK GDP on Thursday add cross-market dimension, but for USD traders, the week essentially starts on Wednesday morning and doesn't end until retail sales close out Friday at 20:30.

🟩 Bullish USD Scenario — Stronger Dollar Case

• CPI doesn't Decelerate as Expected — If the annual rate holds closer to 4.20% rather than falling to 3.80%, the Fed easing case gets considerably weaker and USD finds support quickly.
• Core CPI Holds or Accelerates Above 0.20% — Sticky core inflation on the same day as a softer headline would send a mixed signal that keeps the Fed cautious and prevents USD from selling off too hard.
• PPI Comes in Positive on Thursday — A reading above 0.00% would suggest producer costs haven't cooled as much as feared, adding a second inflation data point that supports the higher-for-longer story.
• Retail Sales Beat on Friday — Both headline and core coming in above forecast would show the consumer is still spending despite all the softening signals, reinforcing economic resilience.
• 10-Year Auction Clears Above 4.54% — A weak bond auction Thursday morning, coming after CPI, would suggest markets aren't ready to price in rate cuts aggressively and keeps yields elevated.
• 30-Year Auction Also Disappoints — A second consecutive weak auction on Friday would reinforce that long-end investors aren't convinced disinflation is here to stay, providing a floor for USD.

🌡 Wild Cards — High Whipsaw Risk

• CPI Drops But Core Holds — If the headline falls toward 3.80% but Core stays sticky at 0.20% or above, markets will struggle to form a clean rate cut view. USD could sell off then immediately recover in the same session.
• UK GDP Beats Sharply on Thursday — A quarterly reading well above 0.60% would push GBP higher and could drag EUR and other majors along with it, creating a USD selloff that isn't driven by U.S. data at all.
• German CPI Surprises Higher — A reading materially above 0.70% on Wednesday would boost EUR rights as U.S. CPI is landing, creating EUR/USD moves that amplify or mask the Dollar's reaction to its own inflation data.
• RBA Sounds Hawkish on Tuesday — An unexpectedly firm RBA statement would lift AUD and set a hawkish central bank tone that shifts how traders read the rest of the week's data.
• PPI and CPI Send Different Signals — The Soft CPI followed by a firm PPI would confuse the inflation narrative just as markets are trying to build conviction around rate cut timing.
• Retail Sales and CPI Both Miss — A double miss on the two biggest consumer-facing data points of the week would be an unusually bearish setup for USD that could accelerate a selloff into the weekend in a way that's difficult to fade.

🔴 Bearish USD Scenario — Weaker Dollar Case

• CPI Annual Rate Falls to 3.80% or Below — the headline deceleration confirms the disinflation trend and immediately pulls forward Fed easing expectations, weakening USD broadly on Wednesday.
• CPI MoM Goes Negative as Forecast — A monthly reading of -0.10% would be the first negative headline CPI print in some time and would carry an outsized psychological impact even beyond what the number implies technically.
• PPI Flat or Below on Thursday — Producer prices confirming what CPI showed the day before removes the last argument for sticky inflation and accelerates the dovish repricing of the Fed path.
• Retail Sales , both Miss on Friday — Core and the headline below forecast after a soft CPI week, would make it very hard for USD to recover heading into the weekend, as two of the biggest consumer data points point in the same bearish direction.
• Claims Rise Above 203K After Soft NFP Last Week — A second consecutive deterioration in claims following last Friday's weak payroll print would raise genuine concern about whether the labour market is turning, and USD would feel it.
• UK GDP Beats and GBP Rallies — A strong quarterly UK GDP print alongside a weak U.S. Data week could push GBP/USD sharply higher and set a cross-market tone that weighs on the Dollar through Friday's close.

Check out the full calendar here:  Followme Economic Calendar Tool
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