FPG ：The upcoming non-agricultural report signals significant risks on the horizon, stirring anticipation in the gold market for the next major market move. 1. [Have former U.S. officials held secret talks with the Russian Foreign Minister? Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Rumors!] The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs dismissed the reports as false and labeled them as rumors. Earlier, NBC reported that former senior U.S. national security officials were believed to have held secret talks with Russian individuals close to the Kremlin, including discussions with Russia's top diplomat, in an effort to address the Ukrainian crisis. Comments: The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded by stating that the news report was false and dismissed it as a rumor spread by the Western media. 2. [China calls on the United States and other parties to promote the return to the comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue to the right track as soon as possible] DiCarlo, the Under-Secretary-General for peacekeeping affairs at the United Nations, emphasized the importance of diplomatic efforts to effectively resolve the Iranian nuclear issue. She called on the United States to lift or exempt the sanctions listed in the agreement and expand exemptions related to Iran's oil trade. Additionally, she urged Iran to withdraw steps that are inconsistent with the agreement and address the concerns raised by all parties. Comments: Geng Shuang, Deputy Permanent Representative of China to the United Nations, echoed these sentiments and called on the United States and other relevant parties to work towards restoring the comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue to the right track as soon as possible. 3. [Re-election of NATO Secretary-General There will be more challenges in the coming year] NATO announced that member states have agreed to extend Jens Stoltenberg's term as NATO Secretary-General for another year until October 1, 2024. Stoltenberg expressed his gratitude for NATO's decision on social media. Despite previous indications of his intention to step down, Stoltenberg will continue in his role as Secretary-General of NATO. Comments: After being the Secretary-General of NATO for 9 years, Stoltenberg will remain in his position for another year, despite previous indications of his possible departure. 4. [The U.S. trade deficit fell to $69 billion in May] In May, the U.S. trade deficit in goods and services decreased by $7.3% to $69 billion, primarily driven by a decline in commodity imports. The commodity trade deficit decreased by $4.8 billion to $91.3 billion, while the service trade surplus increased by $700 million to $22.3 billion. Import of goods and services fell by 2.3% month-on-month to $36.1 billion, reaching its lowest level since December 2021. Commodity imports also declined by 2.7% to $256.1 billion, the lowest since October 2021. Notably, imports of consumer goods decreased by $4.8 billion, and imports of industrial raw materials decreased by $3.5 billion. Comments: The trade deficit of the United States with China, the European Union, Mexico, Vietnam, and Germany in May amounted to $249 billion, $16.5 billion, $13.5 billion, $8.1 billion, and $6.9 billion, respectively. 5. [Many parts of the world are experiencing hot and heat waves, and it is urgent to speed up the purchase of climate] The World Meteorological Organization announced on July 4 that the tropical Pacific Ocean has formed El Nino conditions for the first time in seven years, which may lead to soaring global temperatures, destructive weather, and climate patterns. According to the Associated Press, the global average temperature has been at an all-time high for several days. After experiencing the "hottest day in the world" for two consecutive days on the 3rd and 4th, the average temperature on the 5th remained the same, reaching 17.18 degrees Celsius. Comments: The current heatwave has engulfed the northern hemisphere, setting numerous high-temperature records worldwide. Experts highlight that in the context of global warming, the combination of moderate and strong El Nino events may result in more frequent, widespread, and intense extreme weather events. 6. [The "under the surface" of the riots in France] The peak period of riots in many French cities has subsided. The government is providing financial assistance to the affected cities to expedite the process of reconstruction. While quelling the riots is crucial, it is equally important to address the underlying issues that have been exposed. During his meeting with municipal officials affected by the riots at the Elysee Palace, President Macron emphasized the restoration of national order as the top priority. The government plans to propose an Emergency Law to facilitate the reconstruction efforts, particularly in restoring damaged buildings, street facilities, and public transportation infrastructure. Comments: The continuous riots have caused a loss of at least 20 million euros (approximately 156 million yuan) to the Paris public transportation system. According to the French Enterprise Movement Organization, the recent riots have resulted in losses exceeding 1 billion euros (approximately 7.878 billion yuan) for French enterprises. FPG special analyst King’s opinion: Gold prices have been relatively stable, hovering around $1,911 per ounce. Following the release of strong U.S. economic data, including the ADP non-farm employment report, gold experienced a sharp decline, briefly falling to the $1,900 per ounce level. The focus for gold traders will now be on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payrolls report, which is expected to have a significant impact on the gold market. FPG special analyst Dawson Daosheng’s opinion: Although gold prices have rebounded from their recent weekly lows, short sellers remain cautious. In the Asian market on Friday, gold prices were hovering around $1,911 per ounce. The strong U.S. data and market sentiment challenges are supporting the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which in turn puts pressure on gold. Dave, a special analyst at FPG: Gold prices have faced selling pressure due to the optimistic U.S. employment data, which supports the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve. Additionally, the headlines related to China have not been favorable. The ongoing tension between China and the United States, combined with the anticipation of the U.S. employment report, has weighed on market sentiment and gold prices. FPG special analyst Yue Lin’s point of view: Ahead of the release of the crucial U.S. non-farm payrolls report for June, gold prices may experience consolidation. The expected decrease in non-farm employment from 33.9 million to 225,000 will be closely watched, considering the positive signals from the ADP employment changes. If the non-farm payrolls report performs well, gold prices may face further downward pressure. The above analysis is only for the views of market researchers and is for reference only and is not Regarded as a specific investment suggestion. #Forex #trading #tradingforex