FPG ：The U.S. GDP and the European Bank experienced a downturn in the second quarter, leading to a collapse in gold bulls 1. [The U.S. GDP in the Second Quarter Surpasses Expectations] The initial reading of the United States' real GDP annualized quarterly rate in the second quarter came in at 2.4%, greatly exceeding the expectations of 1.80% and 2% from previous estimates. Additionally, the durable goods orders in the U.S. saw a substantial increase of 4.7% in June, marking the largest surge since December 2022. Furthermore, the number of jobless claims in the U.S. during the week of July 22 reached 2.21 million, reaching a new low since the week of February 25, 2023. Comments: The market is increasingly optimistic about a "soft landing," leading to a sharp decline in gold prices. 2. [Bank of Japan to Discuss YCC Adjustment] Japanese media reports indicate that the Bank of Japan will discuss the adjustment of Yield Curve Control (YCC) today, allowing the yield to moderately exceed the upper limit of 0.5%. This has resulted in a more than 200-point pullback in the yen. Comments: YCC refers to the central bank's practice of trading treasury bonds on the secondary market to control the yield of the country's bonds at a specific level. 3. [IMF Warns of Potential Global Food Price Threat from Black Sea Agreement Breakdown] The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has once again warned that Russia's withdrawal from the agreement allowing Ukraine to export grain through the Black Sea may cause global food prices to rise by 10-15%. The organization is closely monitoring the situation and assessing its potential impact. Comments: The current estimate of 10-15% increase in food prices may grow further as the situation continues to be evaluated. 4. [Russia-Africa Summit and Agricultural Exports] The second Russia-Africa Summit commenced in St. Petersburg, Russia on the 27th. During the summit, Russia announced its commitment to providing African countries with alternative routes for exporting agricultural products from Black Sea ports. African leaders expressed anticipation for a meeting with Russian President Putin to address the situation in Russia and Ukraine. Comments: According to data, Russia claims that only 3-5% of the current supplies shipped from Ukraine actually reach countries in need, with 35% ending up in the European Union, and another 34% remaining in storage. [President of Niger Detained] On the evening of July 26, local time, Colonel Ramane, reading a statement on Niger's national television, announced that President Mohammed Bazum had been removed from office. A nationwide curfew was imposed from late night to 5:00 the next day, and the border was closed until further notice. Comments: This is the fifth military coup since 1974, with an average of one change every 10 years. The frequent political instability has resulted in chaos in the country. [Russia's Intention to Cooperate with Africa on De-Dollarization] According to the Russian Satellite News Agency, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova stated that Russia aims to collaborate with African countries to reduce the influence of the U.S. dollar as a tool of U.S. control. Zakharova expressed the desire to work with African partners to develop a global non-discriminatory agenda and create conditions for peaceful coexistence. Comments: The process of de-dollarization is progressing at an "amazing rate." A recent report by Bloomberg indicates that the US dollar now accounts for approximately 58% of global governments' foreign exchange reserves, a significant decrease from 173% in 2001, when the US dollar's share was as high as 85% in the late 1970s. FPG special analyst Kina's perspective: The stronger-than-expected economic growth in the second quarter put pressure on the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, leading to a decline in gold prices and reaching a new low in more than two weeks. The robust U.S. GDP data has given the Federal Reserve more confidence in its interest rate decisions, as they may not worry as much about the potential "economic weakness" caused by rate hikes. This has strengthened the U.S. dollar, resulting in a downward trend for gold prices. FPG special analyst Dawson Daosheng's viewpoint: Investors anticipate tighter global supply, leading to higher crude oil futures prices, and U.S. crude oil is expected to close above the $80 mark for the first time in three months. Despite the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate hike, which may slow down economic growth and reduce oil demand, the expectation of tight supply and strong demand in China continues to provide confidence for bullish investors. Dave, a special analyst at FPG: The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled, but a slight change in its policy statement may have a negative impact on the euro. Traders' expectations for the European Central Bank to raise interest rates in September have cooled down, leading to a decline in the euro against the U.S. dollar. The probability of European history raising interest rates by 25 basis points in September is now estimated to be about 40%. FPG special analyst Yue Lin's analysis: On Thursday, July 27, U.S. Eastern Time, the unexpectedly accelerated GDP growth in the second quarter led to concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain high interest rates for a longer period to control inflation. This resulted in a decline in the three major stock indexes. Additionally, the news of the U.S. regulators requiring major banks to increase their capital and strict regulations in the financial sector led to a decline in the stock market. Furthermore, there were reports suggesting that Japan may abandon its yield curve control policy, allowing long-term interest rates to rise beyond the 0.5% limit. The above analysis is only for the views of market researchers and is for reference only and is not Regarded as a specific investment suggestion. #Forex #trading #tradingforex