FPG ：The US dollar exchange rate weakened, which provided a boost to gold prices, causing the precious metal to close higher 1. [US GDP Surpasses Expectations in Q2] The US Department of Commerce released data on Thursday, showing that the real GDP of the United States in the second quarter increased by 2.4%, surpassing the 2% growth in the first quarter and far exceeding the market's expectation of 1.8%. Comments: Despite the pressure of high interest rates, the US economy has not slowed down, but is actually accelerating. It appears that the impact of high interest rates will persist for an extended period. 2. [Strong Labor Market Indicated by High-Frequency Data] The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending on July 15 declined to 1.69 million, beating the expected 1.75 million and the previous value of 1.749 million. The number of first-time jobless claims in the US for the same week was 221,000, also surpassing expectations of 238,000 and the previous value of 228,000. Comments: High-frequency data, like these jobless claims figures, usually indicates a strong non-farm job market. 3. [Financial Cooperation Between Saudi Arabia and Hong Kong] The Central Bank of Saudi Arabia and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority held a bilateral meeting to enhance cooperation in financial services between the two regions. The collaboration mainly focuses on financial infrastructure development, open market operations, market interconnection between the two regions, and sustainable development. Comments: The communication and cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Hong Kong can be seen as a means of indirectly communicating with mainland China. 4. [Federal Reserve Kashkari's Optimistic Outlook] Federal Reserve's Kashkari stated that despite the radical monetary tightening measures to curb inflation, the outlook for the United States is quite optimistic. The unemployment rate remains at a record low of 3.6%, though it may rise to 4% in the coming months. He expressed confidence in achieving a soft landing for the U.S. economy and emphasized that if necessary, they will continue to raise interest rates in the future. Comments: The recent positive economic data in the U.S. seems to have bolstered Kashkari's optimistic view. 5. [Slowing Employment Cost in the U.S.] The labor employment cost index, measuring wages and benefits, rose by 1% month-on-month in the second quarter, the smallest increase since 2021 and below market expectations of 1.1% and 1.2%. This indicates a cooling trend in the U.S. labor market. Comments: Despite this, the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) in the U.S. in June still increased by 0.6% month-on-month, showing some resilience compared to the employment cost index. [European Central Bank's Interest Rate Decision] The European Central Bank is considering increasing or suspending interest rates in September, and will evaluate the situation on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Comments: With the challenging economic outlook and downward momentum, the European Central Bank may follow the Federal Reserve's lead and consider suspending the practice of raising interest rates in September. FPG special analyst Kina’s opinion: Gold futures rebounded from $1,400 per ounce to $1,600 per ounce last Friday after the U.S. personal consumption price index showed a 0.2% decline in June, compared to 0.3% in May. The core inflation rate, excluding food and energy price fluctuations, increased by 4.1% over the past 12 months, lower than the 4.6% in May, but still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. From a technical standpoint, gold's slight rebound from the support area at $1,940 is seen as a positive signal. FPG special analyst Dawson Daosheng’s opinion: The eurozone's uneven economic growth may remain above 5% in July, posing challenges for officials on whether to continue raising interest rates. The estimated median consumer price in the euro area is expected to increase by 5.3% year-on-year, and core factors such as energy are predicted to reach 5.4%, surpassing the overall level for the first time since the beginning of 2021. Dave, a special analyst at FPG: U.S. crude oil has fluctuated at a high level despite the strengthening U.S. dollar, which keeps oil bulls vigilant. However, strong U.S. economic data have eased concerns about global economic slowdown and boosted crude oil demand prospects. Additionally, Saudi Arabia's commitment to reduce production by 1 million barrels per day in July and August is expected to provide further support to crude oil bulls. FPG special analyst Yue Lin’s point of view: Investors continue to evaluate the impact of the Federal Reserve's core PCE index reaching a new two-year low and the financial reports of companies like Intel. U.S. stocks opened high and closed higher across the board. The Tongmi data, closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, showed positive signs. Another data point indicated that the U.S. Quarterly Labor Cost Index (ECI) grew at the slowest rate in two years in the second quarter, suggesting a cooling U.S. labor market. However, if supported by more data, the risk of raising interest rates may persist for a period of time. The above analysis is only for the views of market researchers and is for reference only and is not Regarded as a specific investment suggestion. #Forex #trading #tradingforex