欧元：中东动荡盖过欧洲央行因素欧元并不...จาก Koala EA

19 Apr 2024, 17:26 · Views 1,018

欧元：中东动荡盖过欧洲央行因素欧元并不像商品货币那样容易受到中东局势升级的影响，尽管延续上述美元因素，能源价格大幅上涨可能会导致欧元/美元结构性看跌。虽然我们一直在强调，与 2022 年相比，欧元的贸易条件和经济基本面状况要强得多，这在现阶段很难说欧元/美元会平价，但市场有可能会将地缘政治风险上升导致欧元区经济状况恶化作为定价依据。至于欧洲央行的决定如何影响外汇市场，我们可以确定两种主要情况。如果中东局势演变成全面冲突，股市出现大幅回调，大宗商品大幅反弹，那么欧洲央行可能推迟宽松计划也很难对欧元起到支撑作用。还记得 2022 年欧洲央行是如何大幅加息，但欧元仍然承压。在第二种情况下，如果地缘政治事件未能对股市和大宗商品造成重大冲击，那么欧洲央行是否继续降息的决定将对欧元/美元的走向产生更大的影响。

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Koala EA

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EUR: Mixed messages from the ECB Despite EUR/USD being back at 1.08, the European Central Bank's trade-weighted euro has been doing reasonably well over the last month and is up around 1.5%. Looking at positioning amongst the speculative community, positioning is still net long euro – although asset managers did chop around 10% of their euro net longs in the latest reporting week. Net euro longs in this community have been pared back to levels last seen in November 2022 and are down around one-third from their peak last May. A better balanced market? Following last week's surprise cut from the Swiss National bank, there has been increased scrutiny on ECB communication. This remains mixed, with one hawk on Friday still talking up the chances of an April rate cut. Notably, money markets still ascribe a very low probability to such an outcome and we doubt that changes much this week given the absence of key data. EUR/USD remains fragile, but at least the steadier story for the renminbi will discourage aggressive sales of EUR/USD through 1.0800.

Koala EA

US inflation quashes the chances of a June Fed rate cut US core consumer price inflation came in at 0.4% month-on-month, above the 0.3% consensus – only one forecaster predicted such an outcome so just like last Friday's jobs report this is another significant upside surprise that should quash expectations of a June Federal Reserve interest rate cut. 15bp of cuts were priced ahead of time, but this has now collapsed to just 5.5bp. We have two more jobs reports and two CPI reports, but to deliver a June cut we would likely need to see payrolls growth drop closer to 100k and both core CPI prints to come in at 0.2% MoM – the latter of which is on the day of that 12 June FOMC meeting. The details show the 0.4% MoM core increase was 0.359% to three decimal places so we weren't a huge distance away from 0.3%, but this is still far too hot for the Fed. We need to ideally hit 0.17% MoM each month to bring us down to 2% year-on-year over time, so we are still running at double the pace we need to be at. The strength was caused by the supercore services (services ex energy, ex housing), which rose 0.65% MoM with medical care services jumping 0.6% MoM and transport services increasing 1.5% MoM (led by a 1.7% jump in maintenance and a 2.6%MoM/22.2%YoY increase in vehicle insurance). The cost of shelter rose 0.4% while a 1.1% increase in energy costs and a 0.1% increase in food meant headline inflation also rose 0.4% MoM (0.378% to three decimal places). There was better news for car buyers with new and used vehicle prices both falling while recreation prices and airline fares both fell for the first time since November. Given this situation a June rate cut is not happening, barring a rapid reversal of fortunes for the economy. July is also doubtful, meaning September is the more probable start point of any easing, which would limit the Fed to a maximum of just three rate cuts this year.

Koala EA

美元: 守住涨势，焦点重回相对利率美元守住了上周后半段的涨幅，但是未来的日历相当平静。在这个被假日干扰的一周里，唯一真正值得关注的美联储首选的通胀指标--PCE 平减指数，以及美联储主席鲍威尔的评论。这两件事都将在周五发生，届时美国股市将因耶稣受难日假期休市。我们预计 2 月份的整体通胀率将从 2.4% 微升至 2.5%。今年大部分时间，G10 汇率完全由美联储驱动。例如，欧元兑美元对美国利率预期的追踪比对预期利率差的追踪更为密切。现在，随着人们重新关注相对利率，这种情况可能正在发生变化。瑞士央行的意外降息是一个催化剂，英国央行上周的鸽派投票结果也是如此。就连欧洲央行的鹰派也热衷于强调 6 月降息的可能性。当然，并非美国以外的所有政策行动都指向货币疲软。日本日本外务省加强了对日元的口头干预。这些美国以外的行动会对美元产生反馈作用。总的来说，我们预计这些行动将使美元保持在强势区间的一端，但可能不足以促使美元突破。

Koala EA

USD: Keep an eye on Waller's speech FX markets have been struggling to find clear direction since the start of the week, with US data still giving contrasting signals. Yesterday, consumer confidence took a hit, as both the March and a revised February print ticked below 105.0. However, durable goods orders were strong and beat expectations. we have looked closely at the non-defence capital goods orders ex. aircraft gauge, which came in at a solid 0.7% in February but was revised lower to a 0.4% contraction in January. This is the best leading indicator for business capex, which has been rangebound in dollar terms since May 2022, meaning it has actually declined in real terms. In other words, the strong economic and equity performance in the US is not being paired with any rise in investment. When it comes to Fed pricing, we doubt expectations for the June meeting will change much this week unless we see a surprise in Friday’s PCE. There is still 19bp priced in for June and 78bp by year-end, which pretty much mirrors the March median dot plot. Some quarter-end flows may slightly mix up the FX picture today, but the dollar appears in stabilisation mode.

Koala EA