XAU/USD Prediction: ...จาก Boostdemon26

18 Nov 2024, 11:25 · Views 57

XAU/USD Prediction: Decrease Fundamental Analysis: On Monday, November 18, during the Asian trading session, spot gold remained strong after a big rise the day before, with the price hovering around $2,576 per ounce. Despite a Ukraine War, safe-haven demand continued to support gold, prices briefly approached record lower after trump won election. Gold has pulled back slightly from its peak and is now trading near $2,557 per ounce. Meanwhile, Russia launches 'largest-scale' air strikes on Ukrainian energy systems, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that the Russian military used long-range precision-guided weapons to carry out concentrated attacks on key energy infrastructure and military industrial enterprises in Ukraine that ensure the operation of military industrial facilities. The report stated that all scheduled strike missions have been completed.Explosions were reported in Kiev, Kropyvnitsky, Cherkasy, Dnipro, Krivoy Rog, Odessa and Zaporozhye.Ukrainian officials said preventive power outages were implemented in Kiev and several Ukrainian regions due to Russian missile attacks. Technical Analysis: From a technical perspective, gold prices are likely to keep droping and could challenge the $2,545 per ounce level. On the daily chart, gold has been down for two days in a row, with the bearish 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing support around $2,545 per ounce. The longer-term moving averages also show a negative trend, reflecting a bearish outlook. Momentum indicators are flat near the 100 line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is droping, indicating seller are in control.

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Gold prices are still on track to hit $3,000 an ounce next year, but investors will need to remain patient as the current consolidation period is likely to last into the first half of next year. Right now, gold is just stuck in an environment where we don't have anything tangible to get investors back into the market. Gold will face significant headwinds in the new year as demand from the Asian giant remains sluggish and Western investors face potential rising bond yields and a stronger U.S. dollar. The Trump administration is most likely to pursue a policy mix of stronger growth, higher inflation, higher interest rates and a stronger dollar, which is likely to limit investors' appetite to increase gold purchases in the short term . The bank's fixed income strategists expect potential trade tariffs and other U.S.-first economic policies could prompt the Fed to slow its easing cycle in 2025 Despite the challenges, gold and silver will find solid support in the new year, driven by economic uncertainty and geopolitical turmoil spurring safe-haven demand. In its outlook, the bank expects gold prices to average around $2,750 an ounce in 2025, unchanged from its previous forecast. While the U.S. economy may show resilience next year, the U.S. government's ballooning debt is a major factor that could support gold prices. We remain concerned about the uncertain macro environment and fiscal outlook. U.S. debt as a share of the economy is expected to reach a record high within three years of the next presidential term. Central banks remain major holders of government bonds and the fiscal outlook provides strong incentives to further diversify reserves and increase holdings of gold, which has been a popular trade. Although investment demand may struggle in the first half of 2025 as markets adjust to Fed monetary policy It is difficult to overstate the risk that growing U.S. deficits pose to the ongoing de-dollarization trend.

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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand may take a deeper than expected interest rate cut next week, possibly by 75 basis points, exceeding the 50 basis points generally believed by market participants. The market believes that weak economic fundamentals, including weak labor market data, support a more aggressive easing cycle by the central bank. Despite the benign outlook, the New Zealand dollar's downside may be limited by the bearish sentiment already priced into the market, with NZD/USD trading near 12-month lows. A short-term bullish target range around 0.5890-0.5900 may provide upside target levels. Although the pair is oversold, further losses are possible. If the RBNZ chooses to cut rates significantly by 75 basis points, the November 2023 low could be breached.

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GBP/EUR is set for another strong year. However, a major risk is an economic slowdown following UK Finance Minister Reeves' budget. Sterling expected to remain strong next year Sterling should be well supported in 2025. GBP/EUR is set to gain steadily (EUR/GBP is falling steadily); however, GBP/USD's performance is expected to be more subdued. This is mainly because economic growth and inflation in the UK are expected to be higher than in the euro zone but lower than in the United States. We expect the pound to remain strong next year. This is supported by the fact that underlying inflationary pressures are likely to remain slightly higher than in the euro area. It comes after describing the pound as a "diamond in the rough" in its new year forecast publication, with a new set of post-election forecast targets pointing to strong gains in the coming months.

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Gold trading reminder: Concerns about the situation in Russia and Ukraine have enveloped the market, and gold prices have been positive for three consecutive times! Or the sword is pointing at the middle track of Bollinger Bands At the beginning of the Asian market on Thursday, November 21, spot gold fluctuated within a narrow range and was currently trading around $2,649.57 per ounce. Gold prices climbed for the third consecutive trading day on Wednesday, hitting a new high of more than a week at US$2,655.27 per ounce and closing at US$2,650.07 per ounce. The escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine intensified geopolitical concerns and investors sought safe havens. Earlier on Wednesday, gold prices were suppressed by the 55-day moving average. In addition, the market's expectations for a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve cooled, and the U.S. dollar index resumed its gains, which once caused the gold price to fall back to $2,618.78 per ounce. This was because investors wanted to know more about the Federal Reserve's policy. Interest rate plans and policies proposed by U.S. President-elect Trump.

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Oil little changed as market weighs mixed drivers Oil prices steady for Wednesday as concerns about escalating hostilities in the Ukraine war potentially disrupting oil supply from Russia and signs growing Chinese crude imports offset data showing U.S. crude stocks rising.

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