🟢 NordFX Morning Up...จาก NORDFX Global

25 Jun 2026, 13:52 · Views 12,892

🟢 NordFX Morning Update – June 25, 2026 🌏 Asia: Tech roared back overnight after blowout Micron earnings and a bullish Qualcomm forecast eased AI-bubble fears. Nikkei 225 jumped 4.0%, Kospi surged 5.2%, led by SK Hynix (+11%) and Samsung (+5%). Hang Seng slipped 1.0% on profit-taking, ASX 200 -0.3% despite strong May jobs data (+40.3K, unemployment down to 4.4%). CSI 300 and Nifty 50 both opened higher. 💵 FX: Dollar near 13-month highs on growing Fed rate-hike bets. EUR/USD broke below 1.14, now around 1.135-1.14. USD/JPY sits near 161.7, close to a four-decade high. 🥇 Gold dipped under $4,000/oz overnight – a 7-month low – before steadying near $4,000-4,010 as the stronger dollar and hawkish Fed outlook weigh on bullion. 🛢 Oil: WTI ~$69, Brent ~$73, both near pre-war lows as Strait of Hormuz traffic keeps normalizing. 📊 Big data day ahead: US Final Q1 GDP, jobless claims, durable goods orders, and Core PCE (the Fed's key inflation gauge) all land at 8:30 AM ET today. Markets are pricing rising odds of a Fed hike later this year under new Chair Kevin Warsh – a sharp turn from earlier rate-cut talk. Stay sharp out there! 💪 #NordFX #Forex #Gold #Oil #MarketUpdate

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Economic Calendar July 27-31 2026

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ECB July Decision Preview: Why Energy Prices and the Euro Matter More Than the Headline | NordFX The ECB announces its rate decision today at 14:15 CET, with Lagarde's press conference to follow at 14:45 CET. Markets have priced in a hold at 2.25% with over 90% probability. 📌 But whatever the headline number says, it'll be the least interesting part of this story. 🛢️ Energy is calling the shots. June's hike to 2.25%, the ECB's first in three years, was triggered by an oil shock tied to Middle East tensions, pushing the 2026 inflation forecast up to 3.0%. Inflation has since eased to 2.8%, but renewed US–Iran hostilities are pushing crude back up right now, which is exactly why a hold, not a victory lap, is expected today. 🎢 The tightrope behind the guidance. Eurozone growth is fragile, around 0.8%, with Q1 GDP briefly negative. Yet markets still price roughly two more hikes into early 2027 if energy keeps climbing, likely starting in September. Too much inflation risk to cut, too little growth to hike now. ⚖️ The real trade: Fed vs ECB. EUR/USD is glued near $1.14, close to one-year lows, as the Fed weighs its own next step against sticky US inflation. A hold above 1.14 keeps the bullish structure alive; a break lower opens the door to 1.10–1.13. The Fed's July 29 decision, just six days away, could decide it. 🔍 What to watch at 14:15: the rate call itself, then Lagarde's tone on energy and the September meeting. That's where the real market-moving signal will be. 👉 Follow up after the announcement for the verdict and what it means for EUR/USD. Trade the divergence with NordFX 👉 https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis...

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🌅 NordFX Morning Update — July 3, 2026 🇺🇸 USD stays soft, still digesting Thursday's weak June jobs report: only +57K vs 114K forecast, unemployment at 4.2%. Fed's September hike odds now near 50%, down from 67% pre-data. Note: US markets are closed today for Independence Day, so expect thinner liquidity. 💵 EUR/USD holding near 1.1450. 🥇 Gold steady around $4,150/oz, supported by the softer dollar. 🛢️ Oil extends its slide — WTI ~$67–68, Brent ~$70–71 — as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz keeps recovering. 🌏 Asian markets rallied on the softer US data: 🇯🇵 Nikkei 225 +1.3%, back above 69,000 🇭🇰 Hang Seng +1.4% 🇮🇳 Sensex/Nifty +0.8% 🇯🇵 Yen firm on intervention chatter, capping Nikkei's upside 📌 Focus today: thin US holiday liquidity and any fresh Iran/Hormuz headlines steering oil. ⚠️ Trade smart, manage your risk. Have a profitable Friday with NordFX! 📈

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FOMC Minutes vs July Fed: What Changed After Warsh's First SEP? | NordFX Market Insight The Fed just showed its cards, and traders did not love the hand. 🎯 On July 8, the Fed released minutes from Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chair (June 16 to 17). Rate held at 3.50% to 3.75%, unanimous vote, but the tone underneath was pure hawk. Wording: Warsh cut the statement to just 130 words and dropped the old easing bias entirely. The minutes confirm it was deliberate: a few members already saw a case for hiking in June, they simply chose to wait. Dots: 18 of 19 officials submitted 2026 projections. Nine leaned toward a hike, eight saw no change, one still expected a cut. Median year end rate rose to 3.8% from 3.4% in March. Warsh submitted no dot at all, staying deliberately data dependent. That silence is now the market's biggest wildcard into September. 🧩 Inflation risk: Core PCE was revised up to 3.3% for 2026 from 2.7%. Most participants flagged upside risk from AI investment, tariffs, and Middle East tensions. GDP growth trimmed to 2.2%. Labour tolerance: June payrolls came in at just 57K, the weakest in four months, with April and May revised down a combined 74K. The minutes still call conditions stable, but that gap between hawkish talk and a cooling jobs market is exactly what's driving repricing now. Markets: dollar firmer since June, gold pulling back to the 4,150 to 4,175 zone before stabilizing. CME FedWatch leans toward a hold on July 28 to 29, but September stays a coin flip. Add Middle East risk keeping oil bid, and volatility isn't fading soon. ⚡ Bottom line: a Fed that talks less means every data point until September carries more weight. CPI on July 14 is the next big trigger. Trade the volatility with tighter spreads and faster execution. 🚀 👉 https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis...

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📊 NordFX Insight: Industrial Production and Import Prices – How Real Economy Data Moves FX Two "boring" US reports are quietly steering the dollar right now. Here's why they deserve your attention. 🧵 🏭 Industrial Production Output from factories, mines and utilities has been choppy in 2026: down 0.5% in March, up 0.9% in April, then just +0.1% in May, missing forecasts. Capacity utilization sits around 76%, still below its long-run average. Verdict: the industrial economy isn't overheating. 💵 Import Prices Here trade policy hits the data directly. Import prices rose 1.9% in May after 2.0% in April, lifting the annual rate to 6.7%, the fastest in years. Air freight import costs alone jumped nearly 28% year over year. The cause: a wave of new tariffs, including a 10% global surcharge, Section 232 duties on steel, aluminum and copper, plus fresh Section 301 measures, has pushed the average US tariff rate above 9%. 📦 🌍 Why It Matters for FX Soft output plus rising import costs is a tricky mix for the Fed: not clean growth, not clean disinflation, more like stagflation-style pressure, and that keeps rate expectations volatile. Layer on today's backdrop: renewed US strikes on Iran, energy market jitters, and a new Fed chair steering policy, and you get a dollar that jumps on every print. DXY has been oscillating near 100-101 this month, while EUR/USD pushed back above 1.14 as traders trim Fed hike bets and lean into ECB tightening expectations. 📉📈 🎯 Bottom Line Industrial production shows how strong the real economy is. Import prices show how much tariffs and supply chains are adding to inflation. Together they shape the Fed's next move, and that move ripples through every major currency pair. 💡 Ready to trade the next big data-driven swing? Open your account with NordFX 👉 https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis...

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